Thursday night, CEVO-P teams will meet up on de_season to kick off week 2. But before we look ahead and offer some predictions, let's take a quick look back. We're only two matches into the season thus far and there are three surprises worth highlighting.
- The San Francisco Optx are 0-2, with two blowout losses to fellow CGS teams, New York 3D and Carolina Core.
- The Chicago Chimera are 1-1, which isn't a record to fret over this early into the season, but their loss came at the hands of Mug 'N Mouse and the win was a narrow defeat over iNet in overtime. Despite the record, I'd say the Chimera are also off to a rather rough start.
- The '94 Knicks are also 0-2, dropping matches to x3o, which was a bit unexpected but not a huge surprise, and Dynamic, who may be a darkhorse team with playoff potential.
We'll get into these defeats a little more during the predictions, but suffice it to say that after six matches we weren't expecting a combined 1-5 record from the teams we predicted to place third, sixth, and eighth. Ouch.
Going into week 2, only four teams remain undefeated. In terms of CPI, Carolina Core sits atop the standings, followed by 3D.NY, LA compLexity and Dallas Venom who are all tied for second place. The zomblerz round out the top five with a 1-1 record, but the overtime loss to Dallas Venom made their CPI high enough for fifth.
Before we get to the predictions, we should also mention a little something special. You'll notice that some of the matches are labeled as "featured" matches. This means we'll be giving those matches some extra attention due to certain circumstances; it could be a match with playoff implications, something of a rivalry, a team looking to break a slump, or just a match between two awesome teams. As a featured match we'll have a more in-depth prediction, along with a full match recap following the game, and possibly some other goodies down the road. Basically, if any given match deserves to be highlighted, we'll try to do just that.
As for this week, no undefeated teams will face each other just yet, but we're in for a rip-roarin' good time as week 2 kicks off with de_season. Our featured matches for the week are Carolina Core vs. x3o, San Francisco Optx. vs. Chicago Chimera, and New York 3D vs. '94 Knicks.
Good luck to all the teams, and here's the first installment of our CEVO-P predictions!
Carolina walked all over the Optx this past week, beating them 13-3 on Inferno (and possibly turning a few OPTX players into raging infernos at the same time.) Although considering the score, I'm not sure "walked all over" is strong enough. Carolina beat Mug 'n Mouse on the same map by a 13-6 score—double the amount of rounds they gave up to their fellow CGS players. Yikes.
Their opponent for the night, x3o, did the same to the '94 Knicks, beating them 13-4, so it's not like either team is slumping to start the season. On the other hand, it's not like the '94 Knicks and the OPTX have been tearing up the Source scene. Neither team has been very impressive thus far - they scored roughly the same amount of points that Mark Dolven did during the CGS season.
Basically, it's tough to read too much into either of their results thus far considering how their opponents have started the season.
As for the map, I'm not too familiar with either team's history on de_season. The only match that comes to mind was the Core's 3-15 loss to 3D during the CGS season, but months have passed since then and if there's one thing that guarantees change and an uptick in performance, it's a 3-15 loss. Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure a twelve-round differential is a good sign that something isn't going so well.
But there are plenty of things to watch out for, and for x3o it should be DirtySecret. They added to him recently and it was an interesting move. The last few years DS has shuffled through teams like I shuffle through DS games, though he has always been able to stand toe-to-toe with the best players. But at the same time, he hasn't really been considered among the game's elite players since his days with Hyper.
I think a big reason for that was the constant roster moves holding him back, and some of those teams lacked the dedication needed to be the best. If that's the case, x3o could be a tailor-made home for him. As I mentioned in my CEVO-P preview of x3o, I think AZK and PEX, the team's foundation, have attitudes that make for a constructive practice environment. Mix in KEEN, a very experienced CS player, and DirtySecret might have the perfect environment for his talent to excel.
Unfortunately, x3o, and DirtySecret, might not be there quite yet. x3o should give the Core a good match, but I think the Core's experience as a team will prevail in the closing rounds.
sapphiRe's prediction: Carolina Core > x3o 13-10
The brutal truth is this: neither team has shown much life thus far. I wouldn't be surprised if concerned fans were breaking out the CPR paddles; either to shock their favorite teams back to life or to shock themselves back to consciousness after swooning from another loss.
Let's put it this way. San Francisco put up five combined rounds in their first two matches. The only entertaining thing about those matches was their in-game commentary (if you haven't watched the demos of their matches against New York and Carolina, they come highly recommended). Otherwise, it was a slaughter. The Chimera have done a little better, but not by much. They barely topped iNet and they lost to Mug 'n Mouse. Those just aren't teams Chicago should be losing to.
The impression I get from the Optx is that they really want to win this season, but more than that, they know they can win. But at the same time they're lacking team continuity. Whatever chemistry they had during this past July, after they revived themselves from their horrific start to the CGS, is missing in action. I'm sure they're searching for it, and they need to find it before this season slips away.
The Chimera, on the other hand, seems to be lacking the explosiveness that should be in every CGS team. It's strange to say that considering their players (Stevenson was just named one of the top-100 CS players, for instance), but maybe the team just simply underestimated their opponents thus far. No matter what the cause, they need to pick it up if they want to be playoff contenders and the loss to Mug 'n Mouse is a bad stumble to start the season.
Despite each team's lackluster performance thus far, the amount of talent on these two teams makes this a match to keep your eye on. I think the OPTX will be glad to put Inferno behind them, not only because of the results, but because they've got a great shot to get back in the winner's circle - and I think they will do just that in a close, close match.
sapphiRe's prediction: San Francisco Optx > Chicago Chimera 13-11
Unfortunately for the 0-2 '94 Knicks, they don't have home court advantage at The Garden this week. Everybody knows that Spike Lee is good for a motivational point or two.
Instead, they will be traveling to the closest thing New York had to a home court during the CGS, de_season, which for reasons unknown has turned into a stomping grounds for 3D.
Season is relatively balanced, but considering the '94 Knicks' start, 3D should take the early lead on whatever side they start. The Knicks could make a late-game surge with 3 or 4 straight rounds when 3D is near gamepoint, but New York (the 3D kind, not the Knicks kind) should be able to close the deal before the game gets too close.
This might seem a little too confident considering 3D did drop a match to Cyber Revolution on Wednesday night in the Pro-AM. But that was thanks in large part to method's absence. Not to discredit Dave "moto" Geffon's skill, but 3D is a team built on teamwork. If method is still unavailable, without all five parts working together, 3D could be in trouble vs. a very talented Knicks team, just as they were against Cyber Revolution.
If the prediction comes true, then the '94 Knicks will drop to 0-3. It's a terrible beginning to the season any way you look at it. That being said, I still truly believe that the '94 Knicks are playoff bound. I just don't think tonight will be their night.
sapphiRe's prediction: 3D.NY > '94 Knicks 13-8
On one hand, Mug 'n Mouse should be able to pull off a few rounds and take Complexity by surprise. Season wasn't a great map for LA the last time we saw them; they had a couple close matches during the CGS season, notably a 10-9 loss to the Dallas Venom and a 10-8 win over the OPTX. There's also a chance LA will underestimate Mug 'N Mouse, despite their week 1 win over Chicago Chimera.
On the other hand, they're still Complexity. And it's also rumored that MnM will be missing a starter so that's probably not gonna help their chances. Complexity is still the favorite, by quite a bit.
sapphiRe's prediction: LA compLexity > Mug 'N Mouse 13-7
There's nothing that really needs to be said about the Dallas Venom right now. The Venom are 2-0 and, as usual, look incredible. KBS is 1-1 with an overtime win over Cyber Revolution and an 8-13 loss to coL. Let's not kid ourselves, this match should go to the Venom by a large margin.
sapphiRe's prediction: Dallas Venom > KEYBOARD SMASHERS 13-5
I got a chance to watch iNet's SourceTV demo from their match against Chicago. Two words. Wow. Wow.
(I'd add a third wow, but that would just be silly.)
First of all, iNet came about as close as you can to winning without actually doing so. They had Chicago on the ropes, not only in the score but mentally, too. The last time I saw a group of people that much on tilt they were playing at a poker table with Mike Matusow and Phil Hellmuth. And losing thousands of dollars.
pNo was the largest factor in putting Chicago on their heels early in the match. He was single-handedly destroying strats at banana for the first few rounds. They still lost the match in overtime, but it could have gone either way. Their next match wasn't nearly so close, a 3-13 loss to Complexity.
Cyber Revolution had a couple easier opponents than Chicago and Los Angeles in their first two matches. They beat Hyper 13-6 and lost in OT to KEYBOARD SMASHERS. This match doesn't have the headline value of some of the featured games, but I think it might be one of the more dramatic ones of the week. If pNo can AWP like he did on Inferno, Cyber Revolution is in for a long, long night. As it is, I think it'll be a close game and I'm giving the edge to iNet.
Mike's prediction: iNet > Cyber Revolution 13-12 (OT)
I'm not that high on Hyper this season. They didn't fare well in Pro-Am, and they're already 0-2 on the season. They're not a bad team by any means, but it doesn't seem like the pieces they have right now are a good fit against the top teams.
Devastation hasn't been setting the Source forums afire, either, but they've got the history and the experience. It won't be a complete blow-out, but I don’t think it’ll be particularly close, either. Dev should take it.
Mike's prediction: Devastation > Hyper 13-9
I have to say, the Zomblerz have been better with ridic than they were with Pham. That's not a judgment on either player's skills. But after the switch they pushed the Venom into OT in Week 1-1, smooshed Devastation in their next match, and they've turned around their Pro-Am season around in recent weeks. That's a pretty good track record.
I don't know if their turnaround is a product of chemistry, a more consistent practice schedule (Pham was balancing 1.6 and Source), or some combination of a lot of things. But I think they'll take this match relatively easily, moving to 2-1 on the season.
Mike's prediction: Zomblerz > Dynamic 13-6
