(Post Publish Note: I completely forgot that the matches were twelve-round halves instead of fifteen. I’ll leave them published as-is, but I just wanted to give you a heads-up. Also, here’s a direct link to the PT bracket.)
Before we get into the specific match predictions, I thought it would be interesting to go through and make general rankings about who I think is almost guaranteed a spot, which teams will compete for the last couple Invite seeds, and which teams are more likely than the others to end up in Main next season. The teams aren’t ranked in any particular order within the categories.
To Invite
1) GameFrog
2) Cyber Phenom
3) Unheardof
4) itsamassacre
Other Frontrunners
1) inRage
2) American eXpress
3) eMazing Gaming
4) ajnin
Close Behind
1) Legerity
2) The Real Untouchables
3) Nous Sommes Francophones
4) Frag Dominant
Ride the Main Train
1) BFG Gaming
2) Old School Gamers
3) Make You say late
4) Mom’s Perfect 5
The categories are somewhat self-explanatory, but I want to emphasize that I could see any of the sixteen teams making Invite. I could have combined the middle categories, actually, because I’m really splitting hairs between them. It also seemed like a copout to have eight teams there, so I went for the homerun and broke ‘em up. But let’s face it, Legerity or TRU making Invite isn’t exactly an upset.
As another example, take American eXpress. I have them ranked in the second category, but they’re also playing Unheardof in their first match. One team is going down 0-1, and from there it’s actually an uphill battle. Maybe somebody like itsamassacre gets upset in one round, and now you’re 1-1 and playing IAM, a solid Invite team from last season, and one of you isn’t getting in.
So the list isn’t meant as a strict ranking of who will get in and who will be left out, just a guideline of my initial impressions about how the teams stack up against each other.
With that said, let’s get to the actual predictions to see what contradictions I can come up with!
Placement Tournament, Round 1 (de_train)
Featured Match
Unheardof vs. American eXpress – This is the only match that pits two teams coming from Main, and it should be exciting. They played each other during the Lower Bracket Finals of the Main playoffs, and Unheardof earned a 16-13 victory on Inferno.
This match shouldn’t be any different. AmeX has a couple well known players, including NaDeZ (LoT), and SuMsY (REAL, among others), and Unheardof is a team that easily could have been (some say should have been) in the PT last season. I don’t see any way this doesn’t come down to the last couple rounds, especially on Train, which tends to be heavily CT sided.
It’s critical for the Terrorist team on Train to get some rounds right away. If you don’t, pretty soon you’re looking at eco rounds and half-buys, and the CTs laugh merrily as they get three more points for a bomb defuse or three more entry kills on an eco rush. It’s not pretty.
AmeX almost lost to the #15 seed in the first round of the playoffs on Train, and that doesn’t bode very well. Unheardof should be a lot better than that, and I think they’re going to pick up the win.
? > AmeX 16-14
Emazing Gaming vs. inRage – inRage was known as CyberXtreme during the eMg tournament, when I made an ill-fated joke about them that landed me in some hot water in the Open forums. All I heard was how they were an Invite-caliber team. Now they have a chance to prove it.
I had a chance to watch them play on Train against LucK during the tournament, and even though they played with a couple backups, they definitely had skilled players. The bad news is that the person that impressed me the most and carried them a couple rounds, “dEimOOOOn!!!”, is suspended for not running the ACS during a match. Considering how many stories I’ve heard about people forgetting to run the client, he’s actually in some good company.
Still, this should be a great match. eMg struggled last season until the second half when they got active, and it’s not hard to see why. Instead of listing their good players and their complete history, let’s just say it’s a good sign when your team is made of guys that started for Hyper, Forbidden, and Gaming Revolution, among others. Considering the first half of the season when they lost a match or two by more than twenty rounds, their second half full of close losses and victories was pretty much a Christmas miracle.
If this match happened about four weeks ago, I probably would have given inRage the nod. But the suspension and upgraded eMg roster will probably be too much to overcome.
Probably.
eMg > inRage 16-13
GameFrog vs. Old School Gamers – GameFrog, the artists formerly known as electrify!, should do well throughout the whole placement tournament. They’re with a new organization, and if jaywizzle’s postizzle on the CAL forums is real, it looks like they’ve fixed the inactivity that got them here in the first place.
You might remember Old School Gamers from the eMazing Tournament, where they made it to Round 5 before falling to LucK. They’ve got some good players on their team, including at least one person they added from Nuccastyle, the team that took Devastation into Double OT during the eMg tourney. In more recent action, they were the eleventh seed in the Main playoffs, and they’re scheduled against Frag Dominant for the 7th/8th place runoff match. Nothing spectacular, but clearly a good team.
I underestimated OSG and Nuccastyle in the eMg predictions, but I’d have to physically close my mouth with my hand if they upset GameFrog here. If GameFrog is active – and it looks like they are – they should be able to go through the tournament 2-0 and be a top team in Invite next season. OSG isn’t on that level yet.
Before we go, I feel I need to warn the community about another part in jaywizzle’s post. Apparently they’ve had enough time to not only practice, but choreograph “a lil pregame action”. I don’t know about you guys, but that sounds ominous to me. I think it’s the same phrasing Justin Timberlake used to describe the wardrobe malfunction. And no offense, but even the slightest chance of seeing that in CS is enough to make me show up fashionably late to the SourceTV.
GameFrog > OSG 16-9
itsamassacre vs. Mom’s Perfect 5 – Mom’s Perfect 5 is an interesting team, and not just because they have nine guys on the roster (clearly, Mom doesn’t love all her children equally if only five of them are perfect). A quick roster rundown: they have two former juked! members, another player that was on EZ5, a team that reminds me of the Black Sox because they’re known more for who they are than their accomplishments in the game (in my opinion, anyway), a guy suspended for killing the other team during the screenshot round and unsportsmanlike conduct, and a guy that started a team called “aLfonZO’s Money Crew”, which, shockingly, didn’t turn into the second coming of Jax Money Crew.
In other words, it looks like Mom raided the eSports Orphanage for Disowned Gamers to get her Perfect Five.
None of that means they don’t have talent, though. They won their first round matchup in the Main playoffs before losing badly to Unheardof, and receiving a forfeit loss in the next round. I’m not sure of their activity level; on their team page it says they went 9-1 in Season 8 before going Inactive, and that big loss followed by a forfeit loss backs that up. That worries me, and I doubt the suspension helps their practice schedule.
IAM did well after getting moved up last season, and I think they’ll be able to get the win, here. It could be closer depending on MP5’s activity level, because they have the talent to do well, but I’m going to give IAM a fair margin based on recent results.
IAM > MP5 16-11
The Real Untouchables vs. Nous Sommes Francophones – Rematch! TRU and nsF met during last season’s PT, so this should be interesting. TRU won 16-6, but I think they’re on version 3.0 of their roster. Let’s hope the newest version is the best, unlike Masters of Orion 3.0. (I had such high hopes for that game and now I wish it was more like Team Fortress 2.) It’s also worth nothing that they had about eighty forfeits during the Invite season. I can only assume that they’re stockpiling them like a bear preparing for a long, cold winter.
On the other hand, nsF looks to have a similar roster. I’m not sure if it’s exactly the same, my memory isn’t that good, but I recognize most of them. Considering the 6-16 loss, I don’t know if that’s a good or a bad thing.
I have them both in the same category above, and it should be a closer match than last season, but I think the result will be the same.
TRU > nsF 16-12
ajnin vs. BFG Gaming – There isn’t much to say for this one, in my opinion. BFG was borderline dominant early in Main Season 8, from what I remember, but they struggled down the stretch, culminating in an 8-16 loss to AmeX in the second round of the Lower Bracket (their win was a forfeit win over Next LeveL).
ajnin was a pack team from last season of Invite – nothing spectacular, nothing terrible. All in all, I’d call their first season of Invite a success, especially if they can learn from some of their losses and come back strong in Season 9. They won’t dominate many teams, but they hung tough against some really good teams last season, and they shouldn’t have too much difficulty against a good, but not great, BFG squad.
ajnin > BFG 16-9
Legerity vs. Make You say late – What happened to Legerity? They finished fourth in Invite for Season 7, then they fell off the face of the Earth and landed in the PT. Maybe they should have demanded a player option in their deal with Devil (it’s okay, Kurt Warner made the same mistake).
Something was clearly missing last season. I’m not sure if they found whatever it was, but if they didn’t, they’re in danger of not making Invite next season. There are some talented, hungry teams out there, and if you aren’t both of them, you might get passed by.
That being said, Legerity should have plenty of talent to make a comeback, if they’ve got the desire. mysL didn’t have a great run in the playoffs, although they did get a win against inRage on an overturn, and barely lost to American eXpress. Still, their other matches, especially a 7-16 loss to Vendetta, don’t inspire confidence. I’m going with Legerity because they’ve got the skill, and we’ll find out quickly if they’re over their Season 8 malaise.
Legerity > mysL 16-12
Cyber Phenom vs. Frag Dominant – If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll notice that I’m giving the Season 8 Invite teams the benefit of the doubt in the first matches. There’s no doubt in my mind that two-three Main teams are going to end up in Invite next season, and they’re going to go through Invite teams to get there. For now, though, Invite is a different level, and teams that have been there have a definite advantage. We’ll see how that thinking plays out, in any event.
Frag Dominant had a pretty good run during the Main Playoffs. They lost 11-16 to Vendetta, and 13-16 to AmeX, which is nothing to be ashamed of. They’ll be able to give CP a run for their money, even though their players don’t have big “name” value. It’s not like CP tore up Invite this season, although they were another team that seemed to hang in against everybody; never blown out, never blowing out.
They should find fragD a little easier to play against than the zomblerz and Turmoil (Flow/Devastation) though.
CP > fragD 16-8
LANDodger Predictions are part of a healthy, balanced breakfast. They’re chock full of good luck to all teams, predicted winners winning, and predicted losers proving me wrong.
