No big intro today. It’s late, I’m tired, hungry, irritable, and I think my aura changed from its normal effervescent blue to a deathly shade of black about two hours ago. To top it off, I slacked off most of the day because my 8800 GTS showed up.
(I had to sneak that in somewhere).
Suddenly, I feel a little happier.
itsamassacre vs. Make You say late – I’m not sure when it happened, but somehow mysL snuck “remix” onto their roster, and I didn’t even notice in the first set of predictions. I’m not sure if it was complete oversight or if he was added afterwards. Either way, when I heard he was there, I knew my pred was in mortal danger. Then, I was relieved that it came through. And then, of course, somewhat disappointed when it turned out that I still lost.
But this isn’t about me, the point is that remix is playing for mysL, and that’s a pretty big deal. Especially if you’re, oh, I don’t know … playing against mysL. To make sure I didn’t overlook anything else, I gave their roster a close examination. Nothing else jumped out except for the person named Weatherman. Does he get blamed for everything? Or, better yet, maybe he makes calls as forecasts.
“There’s a 30% chance of flashbangs with partly cloudy smoke grenades in middle. At B, we expect light firefights with a high chance of a bomb plant, followed by a Counter-Terrorist front coming in from CT spawn.”
As for the teams, it’s a little hard to gauge their performances in the first round because there wasn’t much of a performance at all. mysL had their loss to Legerity overturned because Legerity used a ringer. Not to be outdone by those uppity guys at mysL that thought they had it easy, IAM got a forfeit win. (Take that!)
I’m a little torn on this one. I tend to favor last season’s Invite teams, but the impact of a player like remix is hard to factor in. He could have a tough time fitting in with the new team, or he could go on a rampage and dominate both halves. I’m going to stick with IAM, because mysL did lose to Legerity + Ringer originally, but this could be the closest match of the PT so far.
IAM > mysL 13-11
ajnin vs. Unheardof – Every once in a while, you just get a hunch about something, like not picking up a hitchhiker that’s carrying an axe even if he says it’s just a bottle opener. The great thing about hunches is that they’re never wrong. Or, more accurately, nobody remembers it when they do go wrong. We just move on with our lives. But when one of them is right, it’s burned into our brain like it was etched there, literally, with a chisel.
I have one of those hunches. I think Unheardof is going to take this match. Don’t ask me why, don’t ask me how, and you especially shouldn’t remind me of it when it goes horribly wrong. But knowing that they were miffed about being left out of the PT last season, and seeing their recent results, I think they’re going to pull off a little upset of the #1 seed and get an early spot in Invite.
It makes me a little nervous that they struggled in the Main playoffs on Inferno. They lost to Vendetta 9-16, and they eked out a win against AmeX 16-13, which is obviously a lot closer than their recent match. Still, I’m sticking with my gut.
? > ajnin 13-11
eMazing Gaming vs. Nous Sommes Francophones – This is going to be an interesting match. nsF surprised me with a big 13-7 win over TRU, and eMg needed overtime to beat inRage, who had to play without one of their top players. In terms of rankings, nsF went up a notch, and eMg trended down.
But I had eMg ranked higher going into the match, and I’m going to stick with that, especially when we consider the map.
Inferno is so CT sided that it’s hard to get any kind of momentum on T side. Even if you throw perfect smokes and flashes to get into a site, there’s still plenty of cover for the defenders behind boxes, fountains, cars, grates, pillars, haystacks, and, in extreme circumstances, teammates. It’s true of all maps to a certain extent, but you need a fragger on Inferno because most of the time you’re using your smokes and nades just to get past half the choke points, of which there are plenty. If you don’t get two entry kills, you don’t get into a site.
I think that’s going to play more to eMg’s strengths with guys like STRuK and deciple. It’s going to be a good match, but eMg should take it.
eMg > nsF 13-9
Featured Match
Cyber Phenom vs. GameFrog – It’s the only match that pairs up two Invite teams from last season, and I know jaywizzle will put up a SourceTV, which is an extra incentive to make it the featured match. It’s lame to tell you which match to pay attention to, and then being stuck with the bland text scroll of a scorebot.The only hesitation about making this the featured match is the history of the two teams. GameFrog, when they were known as electrify! had some convincing wins over CP.
I’m not sure if CP will be able to reverse that trend. We should be able to tell how the match will go pretty quickly. If jaywizzle has his group ready to go, you’ll be able to see the teamwork in the first few rounds. If they’re a little unorganized, it could lead to demonic, iNs, or jEEzy getting some picks for CP, which they’ll need to open up the sites.
I’m not convinced that will happen, though, and I think GameFrog will put the PT behind them.
GameFrog > CP 13-10
Old School Gamers vs. Frag Dominant – All signs point to a close match. They’re #11 and #12 in the CAL-Main playoffs, they’re scheduled to play each other for the7th place runoff, and they both lost their first match to Season 8 Invite teams by similar scores.
Then, there’s the lack of recognizable names. It’s safe to say none of these guys have torn up Invite before. They’re not devoid of upper-level experience, but nothing too extensive.
How does an expert predictor differentiate between these teams, then, you ask? I don’t know, but if you find one, give him my e-mail address and mark it “URGENT”, please.
OSG > FragD 13-10
American eXpress vs. BFG Gaming – BFG are a bunch of good guys, but it’s going to be two and out, I think. AmeX beat them 13-8 on Dust2 during the CAL-M playoffs, and there isn’t anything to suggest a change in fortune. BFG had a convincing loss to ajnin in the first round, and it looks like they’re a good team that might need another season of Main before they’re ready for the big stage.
There’s always a chance of an upset, though. If BFG can get CT side first and really hold it down, they could sneak out a win. If you get, say, ten rounds in the opening half, it puts a lot of pressure on your opponent to perform, and it lets you get into the flow of the game. It’s almost like basketball, in some ways; just before a really good player like Kobe or Wade starts making ridiculous shots, it’s often a couple of easy layups that get them started. If BFG can get it rolling early and get their confidence up, it’s possible.
But I still think it’s unlikely
AmeX > BFG 13-9
The Real Untouchables vs. inRage – I’m changing my thoughts on these teams for the same reasons I did with nsF and eMg. When I was looking at inRage’s roster before the PT, I wasn’t sure if they could overcome deimon’s suspension. I can’t emphasize how dominant he looked during the eMg tournament when I saw them play.
In some ways, that was right. They did lose their first match, but it went into overtime against an impressive eMg roster. That actually surprised me more than a 13-5 loss would have. So they’re definitely getting a little bump.
TRU, on the other hand, didn’t impress. A 7-13 loss is pretty rough opening for the #3 seed. In response to my comments on TRU’s tumultuous roster, “Peaceout” assured me that “tru roster version 7.2 with upgradable service pack 5.3 is quite superior to linux version 3.0”. This begs the question: which roster did they use in Round 1? If it’s version 7.2 with the 5.3 server pack, they might want to check their drivers and check for viruses.
And, of course, there’s another suspension to report, as “bahrain” is unavailable because he’s banned for using the CEVO GUI. I don’t know if it catches cheaters or not, but the CAL AC client is sure destroying the CEVO GUI crowd. Good grief. I haven’t seen this much carnage since I built a bug-zapper the size of a house and had it helicoptered to the middle of a moth farm.
The suspension shouldn't have a huge effect on the match, but it was worth noting. In the end, I think inRage is going to knock TRU out. I’m impressed by the way they handled eMg on Train, where the loss of one of their impact players should be easy to see. They should be able to hold down CT side of Inferno and piece together enough rounds on T side to get a close win.
inRage > TRU 13-10
Legerity vs. Mom’s Perfect 5 – This match has a 90% chance of ending up in a forfeit, and I think the margin of error is +10%. Let’s break down the matchup, shall we?
In one corner, wearing leopard-print shorts and following Neifi Perez’s career path, we have Legerity. They’ve been a good team for a few seasons, earned a 4th place finish in Season 7, and followed that with a precipitous decline and, now, two players banned for using a ringer in their first PT match. Add that to the CEVO GUI ban for one of their players, and they’re down to five players on the roster with at least two starters banned.
In the opposing corner, wearing no pants at all and following France’s career path, we have Mom’s Perfect Five. They forfeited their first match, have one suspended player and five eligible players. I’m pretty sure there were more the last time I looked, which either means they’re dying or they did some bonsai trimming. Either way, they’ve already got one forfeit, and if one person can’t make the match, it’s another double “f” and a ticket to CAL-Main.
Through intensive calculations, days of philosophical pondering, and extensive use of an 8-ball, I think mp5 has a slightly smaller chance of forfeiting, and somebody has to win, right?
Right?
MP5 > Legerity 13-11, because predicting a FF is boring.
LANDodger Predictions:
Made in USA
Machine Wash Warm
Like Colors Only
33% Good Luck to all teams
33% Predicted Winners winning
33% Predicted Losers proving me wrong
