Playoffs??! Don’t talk about playoffs, you kiddin’ me!? Playoffs!?!
(That, along with the Allen Iverson “practice” rant, never gets old.)
Well, we have to talk about playoffs, because the CAL playoffs are here. It’s a six team, double-elimination tournament that starts tonight. The top two seeds, Check-Six (zomblerz) and recKoning, have byes for the first round. The other matches pit LucK against Flow Gaming (previously Devastation), and Mug ‘n Mouse against PK.
Since the season is over and there’s only two matches to predict, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at the playoff teams and evaluate their regular season, and include some basic predictions and things to look out for during their playoff runs (may they be long and fruitful).
Honestly, I could see any team winning the whole thing. When you only have six teams playing, they’re the best of the best. The team I have ranked 5th won the championship last season, and the team I have ranked 4th has been one of my favorite teams all season. I think we’re in for a great playoff run, and I can’t wait to watch some of these SourceTVs.
I’ll go straight down the seeds, so here we go!
1. Check-Six (zomblerz)
Record: 9-3
Notable Losses: Hyper (14-16), MnM (14-16)
Notable Wins: Devastation (17-13), recKoning (21-9)
Player(s) to Watch: brawwr, badappleS
LD’s Rank: #1
More Info: They had three losses on the season, but even that’s a little misleading. One was a forfeit loss to LucK, and the others both came on the same night in a double-header against Hyper and Mug ‘n Mouse. And both of those were 14-16 losses. Sounds like a bad day to me, not a good indicator of how strong their team is.
I have them ranked against the other playoff teams exactly where they’re seeded. It’s going to be a challenge to take them down. Nobody is unbeatable, except maybe Chuck Norris and Vanessa, but over the course of the season (best record), the eMg tournament (first place), and the CGS combine (almost famous, er, drafted), I think you have to rank x6 as the best team.
What impressed me most during the season wasn’t their overall skill, which is excellent, but their attitude ingame. They always seem to be having fun, which is important for a few reasons: they don’t get frustrated easily, they can critique player performance without it being an insult, and they don’t put any unnecessary pressure on themselves. All of those are pitfalls most teams fall into at one time or another.
Essentially, and this is a huge cliché that holds true, they don’t beat themselves, and they’re skilled enough that I basically picked the second “player to watch” at random because the other three starters (misty, classified, J`_`) could all be there as well.
That’s a tough combination to beat.
2. recKoning
Record: 9-3
Notable Losses: LucK (13-17), x6 (9-21)
Notable Wins: PK (25-5), PK (16-14), Flow (24-6), Hyper (24-6), electrify! (27-3)
Players to Watch: zero, zuH
LD’s Rank: #3
More Info: I have them ranked third, but that’s very tenuous. They’ve had some huge wins this season against playoff-caliber teams; anybody that can beat Hyper and Flow 24-6 has to be considered a dangerous team. The only reason I have them ranked below Flow is because of some early season problems when they started 0-2, and I’m giving points to Flow based on their performance in the CGS combine.
That being said, Flow hasn’t been playing with the same people all the time. I wouldn’t begrudge anybody that has recKoning as the #2 team in the playoffs, and other than that small blip, they’ve been everything you want in a #2 seed. They’ve beaten all the teams they should, and they’ve had some dominating wins against other good teams.
If you throw in their performance during the CEVO-P placement tournament, it’s not hard to see them playing in the Finals. They’re a legit contender, and I’m looking forward to seeing if they can avenge their big defeat against x6, if they end up meeting.
3. Mug ‘n Mouse
Record: 7-5
Notable Losses: LucK (11-19), PK (13-17), recKoning (12-18)
Notable Wins: x6 (16-14), Flow/Dev (18-12), eMg (26-4)
Players to Watch: zDk, eterNity
LD’s Rank: #5
More Info: Quick question: who was the only team to beat both x6 and Devastation this season?
It doesn’t take a genius to answer the question, considering where it was asked, and it’s the reason why I have MnM as my darkhorse team, despite also ranking them 5th (I’m not one of those guys that wants to pick the #2 seed as a “darkhorse”). They have the worst record out of all the teams, but they’re still the third seed because some of the other teams had a few forfeit wins. They’re also the defending champs from last season, when they were known as Fever. Their notable losses were all close enough to show they can hang with anybody, too.
In other words, don’t underestimate them. I did it in a couple predictions during the season, and I might even be doing it now with their low rank despite being a high seed. But there’s no doubt in my mind they can pull off the upsets just like they did in the regular season, and if there’s one team that has a chance to come from behind and surprise everybody, it’s da Mug and da Mouse.
Record: 9-3
Notable Losses: x6 (13-17), MnM (12-18), recKoning (6-24)
Notable Wins: LucK (17-13), Legerity (22-8)
Players to Watch: Funshine, sasquatcH
LD’s Rank: #2
More Info: This is actually the hardest team for me to predict. If they come out with their CGS lineup and they’re in practice, they can beat anybody. If they’re still rotating some players in, we might see something closer to the 6-24 loss to recKoning.
Personally, since it’s the playoffs and CPL seeds are on the line, I think they’re doing to come out with a vengeance, and that’s why I’ve got them ranked slightly above recKoning despite the regular season results. One thing I'm sure of: this isn’t your ordinary 4th seed.
(Note: this may be one of those things you're "sure" of that turns out to be false. Like "the world is flat, I'm sure of it", "Earth is the center of the universe", or "dude, she's totally into me". Just trying to cover my ass, don't mind me.)
5. LucK
Record: 9-3
Notable Losses: Flow/Dev (13-17), ajnin (14-16), Visual Gaming (9-21)
Notable Wins: MnM (19-11), Cyber Phenom (20-10), recKoning (17-13)
Players to Watch: Allbrook, messiaH
LD’s Rank: #4
More Info: LucK came through the placement tournament and they’ve got a 9-3 record – anybody else think they’ve done alright for themselves? Three of the wins are forfeits, but a 6-3 record is still good. I’m not sure if they’re on the same level as the elite teams, as evidenced by their 13-17 loss to Flow, and a loss to ajnin, a team that failed to make the playoffs.
Then again, when you look at their roster, you’ve got to think their pickups have been excellent. Allbrook, messiaH, lakai, and eXigenT have all been added at some point during the season, and they’re all very good players, and that might be an underestimation if you look at their stats.
If there’s one thing I’ve seen during some of their performances, it’s that they let teams back into the game. In their loss to ajnin, they had a big lead and let it slip away (although ajnin’s play had something to do with that, as well), and during the eMg tournament they jumped out to a big round lead during each half of a Train match before the other team got some momentum. If they want to take home the title, they’ll have to hold onto those leads like Homer Simpson holding the last donut in the world.
6. PK
Record: 8-4
Notable Losses: x6 (13-17), recKoning (14-16), recKoning (5-25)
Notable Wins: MnM (17-13), eMg (22-8)
Players to Watch: dboy, gmd
LD’s Rank: #6
More Info: They underwent a big roster change during the season, and honestly, I wish we saw more matches from the new players. I don’t remember the exact date of all the changes, but I think they got three forfeit wins, and one forfeit loss all with the new guys, which means they’re still a little hard to get a read on.
A lot of people in the community feel their new roster is inferior, but I’m not convinced. Minus their bookend matches and the forfeits, they didn’t have a single match that didn’t finish at 16-14 or 17-13. That’s pretty crazy, and it seems like there isn’t a definitive argument for either version being more dominant than the other.
In the end, it doesn’t matter which squad is better, because the old roster isn’t coming back (that may or may not be a good thing, depending on how the matches turn out). I think they could sneak in a win, but I don’t really see them as a contender. I think they’re going to have a tough time with such a strong field.
Round 1 Predictions
Flow Gaming vs. LucK – When they played during the regular season, I picked LucK in an upset. That didn’t turn out well. For me, anyway – I’m sure there was another LD predictor in an alternate universe that was very happy. And he’s probably rich, too, that bastard.
The map they’re playing on, de_cpl_mill, wasn’t used during the regular season, so we’re going to see some new action. Watch Funshine AWP on their CT side, he’s going to be a key for Devastation’s defense. A good AWPer can really mess people up at A by controlling mid and the right ramp if his teammates are positioned properly and have good communication (which shouldn’t be a problem for Flow).
If LucK can limit his impact with smokes and flashes, or by making him rotate, I think they’re going to have success on their T side. The problem is making sure their flashes and smokes are timed perfectly. If they’re not, they’ll have to push too hard to get into the site (while the smoke is deployed, or a flash goes off), and you can’t afford to do that on Mill. There are too many stacks, crossfires, and boosts to rush headlong into everything. Terrorists need perfect execution, starting with limiting the AWP, and working into the site.
My gut feeling says it’s going to be a really fun match to watch, and Flow is going to come out on top. Funshine might not be the top fragger (watch out for sauce and Kwick) but I think he’s going to have a huge impact on the game because you always have to be aware of the AWPer, just like you always have to respect a three-point specialist in basketball. I’m looking forward to seeing what each team comes up with.
Flow > LucK 16-13
Mug ‘n Mouse vs. PK – The map is probably going to put PK at a disadvantage. It wasn’t played during the regular season and they have a new roster. While I’m sure they’ve developed some chemistry over the course of the season, that doesn’t always translate from one map to another. I’m not sure how much of a disadvantage that will be, it depends on their practice schedule, but I don’t think you can discount it altogether. When you get to the top levels of competition, small things like rotations, flash/smoke timing, and knowing your teammates become critical factors. One small mistake, a flash thrown a second early, leads to a player being un-blind one second earlier, which easily leads to a broken strat.
I think that’s going to be enough for MnM to reverse the regular season result, which was a close (17-13) win for PK on Inferno, but it’s still going to be a very close match.
MnM > PK 16-14
The predictor’s commandments:
1) Honor thy opponent and thy teammates
2) Thou shalt have good luck
3) Thou shalt not covet the predicted winner’s win
4) Thou shalt not murder thy predictor when you proveth him wrong
5) Thou shalt have no other predictors before me … unless my predictions suck, then you can do whatever you want.
