Taking a quick look back, my record from the first three rounds was 70-25. Add in the 13-3 record from last week, and we’re at 83-28. For anybody that’s not a mathematical genius, that works to a winning percentage of 74.8%.
We’re at a strange place in the predictions. I wouldn’t say it’s purgatory, but we’re certainly stuck somewhere. There are five CAL-Invite teams left, and one team that’s ripping up CAL-Main. Those six teams are playing in six different maches. Not to take anything away from the teams that made it this far, but it looks like there will be some lopsided scores.
(There were plenty in earlier rounds, too, but the sheer number of matches made up for it. When you have 128 teams, there are bound to be a few exciting games. Now? Not so much.)
So, as a warning, I'd rather not point out the obvious in some of the matches. Let’s face it, you don’t need an all-star predictor to tell you Check-Six is probably going to beat fragout! I’ll try to keep things moving along.
Round 4 (de_cpl_mill)
FragTech vs. recKoning – In my mind, this match has the potential to be interesting. FragTech has plenty of CAL-M talent on their roster, and if recKoning takes them lightly or isn’t practicing much, they could be in for a surprise.
I’d be in for a surprise, too, because barring some motivational disaster, I doubt recKoning will lose. FragTech is a good team, but I don’t think these teams are on the same level. But at least there's a chance, which is more than some of these matches have.
recK > Frag 16-10
volatile vs. Legerity –I really hope this ends up being played, but it’s not looking good right now. volatile has a player on vacation, the rosters are locked, and I’m not sure that they can get it rescheduled. It’s too bad, because it’d be a good match.
Legerity is one of the CAL-I teams left, but volatile is a good CAL-M team and they’ve been playing well thus far, too. Their 19-17 overtime win against Panty Raid surprised me, but it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve underestimated a team.
Congratulations to them for the overtime win, but if this match does get played I think it will be a lot like the recKoning/FragTech match: good, but the CAL-I team takes home a comfortable victory.
Legerity > volatile 16-10
fragout! vs. Check-Six – This is the first match that has name value and almost no chance to be exciting. I don’t see any way this could be a close.
Well, that’s a lie. I’ve got a pretty good imagination, so allow me to illustrate the situation.
NightFall decides to remake Heroic (read: make Heroic), and pays BadappleS to leave x6. fragout! learns of Misty’s love for the Die Hard movies and arranges a getaway with Bruce Willis (but you didn’t hear that from me, fragout). Brawwwr pisses off a witch and gets turned into a One Eyed Zombler, which clearly means he has to retire from CS.
Now they’re down to two players, and I think all those situations are totally possible. If all that happened, Check-Six would have to play 2 v 5, and I’d still predict them to win 16-14. But it’d be a close match.
I’m not sure if they could really win 2 v 5, but you get the point. Check-Six is probably going to run through fragout ! with no problem.
x6 > fo! 16-2
Devastation vs. Ever Sports – See: Check-Six prediction, eMg Round 4. The one you just read.
Sorry, Ever Sports, it just ain’t happening. You’ve done really well so far, giving up only 4 rounds in the first three rounds. That’s going to go up.
A lot.
(Sixteen rounds, to be exact.)
Dev > ES 16-4
Default vs. LucK – LucK should come out of this with a pretty easy win. They played cyberX in Round 3, winning 16-10, although I think cX played pretty well. They were down a couple starters, and you could tell it hurt them. LucK jumped out to big leads to start both halves, and once cX got used to their roster and LucK’s strats they started picking up rounds.
Against a less talented team, they probably would have won, but you can’t give up five or six straight rounds to start a half and come back against a CAL-I team. They’ll pick up enough rounds to close you out.
So, in the end, LucK pulled out the win. This matchup should be easier for them; Default is 5-3 in Main, cX is undefeated.
LucK > Default 16-7
Exitium vs. Old School Gamers –This is really the first interesting matchup (read: a match either team could actually win). Exitium has done well in Intermediate, compiling a 4-2 record, but OSG is a solid main team. Their record in Main isn’t that impressive, but their tournament results have been great.Their 16-2 win over Wal-Mart security certainly got my attention. wMs used to be a Main team, and they’ve still got players with Main experience on the roster. Beating them 16-2 is no small feat.
Granted, it’s not like beating Check-Six 16-2, but I still think it’s a sign that they’ve been playing well. I’ll give them the nod in a close match.
OSG > Exitium 16-13
str!ke vs. Unheardof – I’ve said it before: I’m all about getting an easy win. All the rewards, none of the work. But at some point, str!ke has to play a match, right? They’ve advanced on three forfeit wins so far, and that’s actually impressive in its own way.
Could a team win a whole tournament by making the other teams forfeit? I can almost guarantee it hasn’t been done before. I say almost because there’s no way I’m looking it up, and I don’t have the results of every online tournament ever held, so I can’t say for sure. But still, it’s a mortal lock.
In general, we see more forfeits than 16-0 wins, but a team has to be totally dedicated to screwing over their opponents to advance on free wins. You need a whole list of excuses: medical visits, work schedules, school projects, family obligations, and maybe even a pet emergency (I have to take my dog to the vet, he just ate my iguana, etc). Any team that can pull that off has my respect.
str!ke will need that kind of dedication, because Unheardof should take the match easily if it’s not a forfeit.
? > str!ke 16-4
Featured Match
Newbies Operating vs. It Takes Five – Who would have thought this would be the featured match with five CAL-I teams left? You can take the big names, I’ll take the excitement.
I’m still a little stunned by IT5’s demolishing of Energie. When you miss a prediction that badly, it shakes you a little bit. You do your best to put it behind you and come out fighting the next day, but man, it’s there in the back of my mind. I’m not sure I’ll ever be the same again.
Glad I got that off my chest, I feel better now.
Both teams have done well so far, but I was a little confused by NO’s overtime victory against Ruin. I might have overestimated them a little bit, and given IT5’s performance, I’m going to give them a close win.
IT5 > NO 16-14
(Note: I’ve already written the Legerity/volatile prediction, but the match has already been played. It was a 16-13 win for Legerity, but I’m leaving the prediction in, anyway. Just wanted to give everybody a heads-up.)
(Second Note: it5 just finished their match against NO, as well, resulting in a 16-9 victory.)
Wait, it’s over already? I don’t know what to do with myself. I feel like I still owe you another thousand words.
Not really.
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