Tonight, as I started the predictions, I was very happy. For the first time during the eMg tournament, the list of teams was less than a page long. There’s extra white stuff on Page 1 after the last matchup. This brought a joy to my heart, the kind which only comes when you see the light after days and days of darkness.
Taking a quick look back at the last set of predictions, my record was 24-8 for Round 2, bringing my overall record to 70-25 with one missing match. (That match, like the sock my dryer eats, will never be found.) In my defense, six of the bad predictions from Round 2 were on forfeits. Throwing out all the FFs for the second round, my record was 16-2. Just don’t look at how bad the round predictions were. It’s not pretty.
The Bill Cosby Seakings vs. FragTech – The Bill Cosby Seakings had a big first round victory and a forfeit win over Serious Gamers in the second round, but I don’t think they’re going to pose much of a problem for FragTech.
To make the match more interesting, I humbly submit they actually get Bill Cosby to play. I think he’d make a great CS player. He’s all over the place, he’s random, and you can barely understand what he’s saying. In other words, he’s a typical gamer. (wtf omg nowai ur rong.) As an added bonus, he can lift everybody’s spirits if the match doesn’t go well.
FragTech > TBCS 16-5
recKoning vs. Bananas in Pajamas – I figured rsyn would give recKoning a run for their money, but it was an even longer run than I thought. I pegged them for a nice mile, and they did that plus a sprint (overtime). recKoning came out with a 19-17 win, which wasn’t even the closest match in Round 2 (more on this in a later prediction).
BiP destroyed their opponent 16-2, which just goes to show you should never mess around with Bananas in pajamas. You play with fire, you’re gonna get burned. You play with BiP, you’re gonna get … banana mush stains on your pajamas?
Anyway, this should be another fairly close match, although I think BiP isn’t quite as strong as rsyn was. recKoning should be able to pull out the win and advance into the e-Sweet Sixteen.
recK > BiP 16-11
volatile vs. Panty Raid – Of course Panty Raid is playing against the only team left in the tournament with a female starter. What else would you expect? It was destined from the beginning, just like every forum thread is destined to have at least one flame. It's just a matter of when.
volatile is a solid team, but Panty Raid is going to be too strong. They’ve got some very talented players, and should be able to take the match pretty easily.
PR > volatile 16-9
Cyber Phenom vs. Legerity – I’d peg this as the featured match, but I’m penalizing Cyber Phenom for getting a forfeit win over The Real Untouchables last round. Not only did it ruin my prediction, but it was the featured match for Round 2. Boo, I say! BOOOOO!
I’m just kidding, of course. There’s just a matchup I like a little better later on in the predictions. This is pretty much opt ion 1B, though, considering they’re both CAL-I teams. As luck would have it, they’ve played each other in Invite already, with Legerity getting an 18-12 win.
I think I’ve predicted CP to lose 900 times. Feels like it, anyway, and now it’s going to feel like 901. Really, I think this match could go either way, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see an OT match. Legerity hasn’t been setting the world on fire. Their 2-6 record wouldn’t even light tinder, at this point. But I’m sticking with them on the strength of their earlier win and the fact that most of their losses have been very close matches. Hopefully they pick up a close win, here.
Legerity > CP 16-14
fragout! vs. obsceNe! – Battle of the exclamation points!
fragout eliminated itasamassacre! I couldn’t believe it! It was a forfeit win, but still! They’re only a 3-3 CAL-IM team, it’s not like they’re CAL-I!
Three forfeit wins between them! That’s obscene (pun intended)! Speaking of obscene, they’re 4-0 in Open! What a record!
Mercifully, no more exclamation points. obsceNe! has been really good in CAL-O, and it’s a little hard to gauge fragout! because they haven’t played a match yet in the tournament. I think o! will take it, but it shouldn’t be a blowout.
obsceNe! > fragout! 16-10
They were a good team with good players, in the right place at the wrong time. x6 was looking for revenge after two 14-16 losses in CAL-I. jCp was their next opponent. It was a good run.
jCp: Round 1 – Round 3, eMg Tournament. Rest in e-peace.
x6 > jCp 16-6
Amped Gaming vs. Devastation – I’m not sure if I misjudged a team more than I did Nuccastyle. I predicted them to lose a close match in the first round, and I predicted them to lose huge to Devastation in the second round. They won their first match and took Dev to double overtime before losing 22-20. 22-20! Gotta give props for that performance, even if they did completely ruin two predictions. Well played, sirs. Well played.
I don’t think Dev will have that much of problem with Amped. At least I hope not. I don’t like missing match predictions by more than ten rounds, even though you can’t tell that from the actual results, sometimes.
Dev > Amped 16-3
Ever Sports vs. Up in Smoke! – Up in Smoke has won both of their matches on forfeits, which is my favorite way of advancing. Keep your earned wins, I’ll take the free pass, thanks.
If this match gets played, Ever Sports is probably going to take it easily. They’ve already dispatched a 3-1 CAL-O team by a 16-2 margin, and I don’t see a reason for this match to be much different.
ES > UiS 16-4
Fluid Gaming vs. Default – This has the makings of a good match. Default has played well in Main, but they seem inconsistent. They had a 16-14 loss to cyberXtreme, the top team in Pacific Main, but they also got blown out by FragFacile, a 4-4 team. They barely beat IN1HIT, another 4-4 team. They’re pretty hard to gauge.
Fluid has a close loss to Blood Sports in Intermediate, and they got blown out by Lateral Gaming for their other loss. But they’ve been doing well overall, and it looks like they’re a pretty solid team. Default will need to play like the team that hung with cyberX, or else they’ll be in trouble. I’m giving them the win, but Fluid could pull off an upset.
Default > Fluid 16-12
Featured Match
cyberXtreme vs. LucK – When I made the prediction for cX in the first round and people were miffed about it, they all said one thing: cX is an Invite-caliber team. Now we get to see how true that is.
LucK is 5-3 right now in Invite, and they’re a very, very good team. They’ve got two former members of Forbidden, messiaH and Allbrook, and the rest of their players are really solid. I’ve had a chance to watch them a couple times, and I’ve been impressed with the quality of their play (even in their losses).
To be honest, I’m not sure cyberXtreme will be up to the challenge. Their record in Main is a perfect 8-0, but their last two wins have been 16-14 over two teams near .500. LucK is almost certainly better than that. I’m not sure if it was just an off-day or two, but they’ll need to play better to get a win here.
So, if you couldn’t tell, I’m going with LucK. It’s the match I’d like to see the most, and it’ll give us a little glimpse into how cX stacks up to Invite. I think they’ll fall just short of a win, but it wouldn’t surprise me if I end up predicting their Invite matches next season.
LucK > cX 16-13
Exitium vs. Devil 13 – Devil 13 has either done well to make it this far, or they’ve signed the Kurt Warner deal with the Devil: you come from obscurity to make headlines, only to fall off the face of the earth three years later.
Putting aside the question of whether it’s morally wrong to sell your soul for e-fame, Exitium should be able to win. Devil 13 has played well up to this point, but they do have a 10-20 loss on their record in Open, and Exitium only has two close losses to two of the top teams in Intermediate. In other words, Exitium is one of the top teams in IM, as well, and that should be more than D13 can handle.
(Just a random thought: if the rap group D12 is known as the Dirty Dozen, can they add a member and become D13, the Dirty Baker’s Dozen? Or would that cost them too much street cred?)
Exitium > D13 16-8
But, I got nuthin’. Honestly, I think the teams will be evenly matched, and it should be one of the most exciting matches to watch in Round 3. Each team has players with Main experience, but neither is really overpowering.
When I can’t use reason to analyze a match, I stick with my gut. And my gut tells me I’m hungry.
And OSG will win a close match.
OSG > wMs 16-12
Livinproof vs. str!ke – Oh, how my desire went horribly wrong. I was really hoping to predict an I ATE EVERYONE/fatties match in this spot. Careful readers will note that neither of them are here. I take full responsibility for placing the LD curse upon them. I said that matchup needed to happen, and clearly that was too much bad karma. I hope they can forgive me.
str!ke is another team here on two forfeit wins, and they’re only 2-2 in CAL-O. There’s really nothing to suggest they’re a dominant team. Even though Livinproof is only 3-1 in Open, they did have an impressive victory against fatties, and their results in Open have been better, in general. I’ll give them the nod, here, and hope that str!ke doesn’t receive a third forfeit win.
Why am I hoping they won’t receive a forfeit win? To save everybody the three str!kes and you’re out jokes that are bound to follow.
LP > str!ke 16-9
Unheardof vs. Blood Sports – I was impressed by Unheardof’s victory over Vendetta, I thought it’d be more of a fight. Which is to say, I thought it would at least be a fight. 16-1 is a massacre.
Blood Sports has two solid wins, but the opponents haven’t been anything special. They’re 5-1 in IM, and it looks like they’ll be in Main next season. They’re a pretty solid team, but I doubt they’ll pose much of a threat to the CAL-I hopefuls.
? >Blood Sports 16-8
Newbies Operating vs. Ruin – I underestimated NO in the first round, and tried to make up for it in the second round by pointing out a couple players that I recognized, hoping that would explain my error. I was wrong, again. I was informed by FLuX, through the LD comment box, that the players I picked out don’t even play anymore. Sigh. Can nothing be straightforward?
That being said, they’ve still got players with CAL-M experience, and that was the basic message of what I said before.
Both teams are in CAL-IM, with NO sporting a more impressive record. Based on that and their performances thus far, I think NO is definitely the stronger team.
NO >Ruin 16-9
It Takes Five vs. inFusion – I didn’t give IT5 a real prediction last time, which prompted a comment on my thoughts from their first round match against Energie.
For anybody that doesn’t keep a complete list of all my predictions next to their desk, and shame on you if you don’t, I’ll summarize it here: I predicted a close win for Energie (16-12), and the result was a 16-1 win for IT5.
And because I like to give the fans what they want, I’ll give my thoughts on that match here. From a prediction standpoint, I think four words sum it up: swing and a miss! Although, to be fair, this wasn’t any ordinary miss. This was one of those Bugs Bunny swings where the player misses the same ball three times. Whoops!
In the larger perspective, I think it supports two things very nicely. The first being there are really talented teams (and players) in every division of CAL. Just because we haven’t heard of player “X” or team “Y” doesn’t mean they’re not every bit as talented as the players we watch in Invite. I’m not sure whether IT5 is one of those teams or has those players, because it was only one match. But they’re out there. It’s just a matter of finding them.
The other thing their match supports, in my mind, is the whole reason for this tournament. One of the goals was to give teams from Open and Intermediate a chance to play against some top teams, either as a learning experience or to prove their mettle. Personally, I think it’s cool to see teams with potential realize they can hang with the big dogs, and hopefully it was a fun experience for all the teams involved thus far.
After saying all that and seeing IT5 just completely demolish my first round prediction, I sure hope they can take out inFusion (4-0 in Open). If not, I’ll have even more egg on my face.
IT5 >inF 16-6
In LANDodger predictions, there is (are):
[ ] Good luck to all teams
[ ] Wins for the predicted winners
[ ] Predicted losers proving me wrong
[x] All of the above
