Notes before the predictions: EXTREMITY died since the last round of predictions, and Riot Squad isn’t scheduled due to some roster complications. They should be back on their feet soon, but the schedule is being altered so Check-Six is playing itsamassacre instead of RS.

I’ll have more on EXTREMITY later in the week. For now I will shed a single tear, wave a fond farewell, and move on with the predictions. Good luck in the future guys, hopefully we’ll see you back in CAL-Invite or at LANs in the future.

Check-Six vs. itsamassacre – Good news: itsamassacre gets to play a match this week instead of not playing EXTREMITY.

Bad news: they’re playing x6, a team that just moved to 5-0 and picked up BadappleS, a very talented player. 

I’m all about playing matches, don’t get me wrong. I’d rather every team played every match. But I’m also in favor of cheap wins when the alternative is crushing defeat.  IAM isn’t a bad team, but I think x6 is a little bit out of their league. 

x6 > IAM 19-11

LucK vs. Cyber Phenom – In the LucK matches I’ve seen since teky played well on Dust2, he’s been missing.  Somebody find teky, please! I would like to see more teky! It’s not that they’re bad without him, they’re just better with him.

Speaking of being better, I was just looking at LucK’s roster and it appears messiaH, formerly of Visual Gaming, has resurfaced. I’m not sure if he’s just joining to help out for a season or what, but if he’s going to play for them it’s a huge pickup. I’m sure it has something to do with Allbrook being on the team since they played with each other on Forbidden and are currently roommates.

CP has played every match pretty close, and I think they’re going to lose another close one here. I think their chances here lie in the role players. Demonic can’t carry them by himself. If they get a good game out of TerroR or iNs, they’ve got a much better shot. 

I’m still on the LucK bandwagon, though. After two straight losses it feels like I have a little more elbow room, but I’m riding ‘til the wheels fall off, baby.

LucK > CP 17-13

Mug ‘N Mouse vs. PK – This was going to be a community match, but two things happened. 

One: nobody sent me anything. I can’t express my surprise in words. I lobbed up a pitch for some aspiring predictor or comedian to knock out of the park, and nobody even stepped up to the plate.

But that’s okay because of the second thing: PK underwent some kind of major roster change which would have made any predictions pointless, anyway. I don’t know what happened. I do know the effect of what happened: they’re a completely new team, and I have absolutely no idea how good they’ll be.

(It’s not a good sign for your team if four starters wake up one day to find they’re not on the roster anymore. I believe the proper line is: “what we have here is a failure to communicate.” Are Cool Hand Luke references lame? )

Although, it did bring up fond memories from my 1.6 days – namely, finding a “help me, I removed my whole team” forum thread every once in a while. I loved those things. The team leader gets drunk, or impaired in some other way, comes home and decides to become an army of one. Sometimes accidentally, sometimes as a “joke”, always after the roster lock. Since the rosters are locked, the person always had to crawl onto the forums and beg for mercy, basically. And I'd just sit back and wonder how somebody could "accidentally" remove five people from a team, considering it's a two or three step process for each player. People amaze me.

PK played against x6 with the new roster and held the match tight, but I’m not going to read too much into that. They’re still a new team, basically, and MNM has been playing really well. I don’t see PK winning against a top team until the new car smell is gone.

MNM > PK 19-11

electrify! vs. Hyper – I’m going to keep this one short since there isn’t much new information, and I think everybody is tired of TMNT jokes. 

Hyper is still 3-0, which they’ve been for some time. I still think they’re an upper-echelon team, but it’d be nice if we could see them play some more matches. (I’m not sure it’s their fault, it’s not like all the other teams have been playing matches on time.)

Only one thing to report for electrify!: Jaywizzle is back from vacation. They’re hoping to get more active, but I don’t think they’re going to take down Hyper without more than the occasional scrim. They barely lost to the new PK roster, but again, I’m not sure how to gauge PK yet. I’m going to give Hyper a slight edge. I think electrify! has the talent to win, it’s just a matter of how comfortable they are on Inferno. If they’ve been practicing more, or have natural chemistry on the map, they could pull off an upset.

Hyper > electrify!  17-13

Featured Match

The Real Untouchables vs. ajnin – I got a chance to watch ajnin during their victory against LucK, and I was a little surprised. I thought LucK would take that match, but ajnin played well. It seems like they have a few solid players and one or two guys that can dominate.  (n1x1n is one, and DoC was holding down CT side like a champ during the match. I’m not sure if that’s par for the course or not.) 

I haven’t seen TRU play since they lost dc, they had a 17-13 win over MNM, which is pretty impressive.  The 21-9 loss to x6? Not so much.  They’ve got a couple new faces on the roster, as well (blazed and bahrain). The good news is that CT side of Inferno isn’t very complicated. The rotations and setups aren’t complicated. The bad news is that the ease of the CT setup makes T side that much more complicated. You need total coordination for a strat to work, and that’s something that comes with time and practice. I’m not sure if TRU has had enough of either to be comfortable with the new players.

I think the match will come down to DoC’s AWP. If he can do as well as he did on Contra, ajnin should be able to hold down CT side and get enough rounds on T to win. If TRU can neutralize him, they’ll be able to get away with any potential chemistry issues. I’m going to give ajnin a slight edge, but it should be a good match to watch. 

ajnin > TRU 16-14

Legerity vs. eMg – Legerity is a good team, and I’m still stunned about the 26-4 beating eMg took. You don’t shake that thing off easily as a player or a predictor. Every time I predict them, it’s going to be in the back of my head, just like TMNT and Hyper.

At the very least, I’ll need to see a win or two before I give them the benefit of the doubt in a prediction.

Legerity > eMg 19-11

Devastation vs. reckoning – My upset pick from last round, LucK > Devastation, didn’t turn out so well. It was a 17-13 win for Dev, so at least it was close. I count that as a moral victory. Whenever I stick my neck out, even just a little bit, I’m relieved if it doesn’t get completely chopped off. 

I don’t know if this is a new development, but Grant “Griff” Hall is on Devastation’s roster now. He’s a top-flight player, and if he’s active he’s probably filling in for dubs during his suspension. That makes Dev a lot more dangerous. 

LucK also beat reckoning earlier in the season, and with Dev’s recent victory I’m going to give them a little edge here. I’d be a lot more confident if I knew Griff was going to play, but I’m assuming he’s on the roster for a reason, and it’s not just to say he was CAL-I. (I think he’s got that covered, already.)

Dev > recK 17-13

Warning! Side effects of these predictions may include: good luck to all teams, the predicted winners winning, and the predicted losers proving me wrong.