A few quick notes before we get to the predictions. A few teams are at the CGS combine, which means if you’re interested in watching their matches, they won’t be happening tomorrow. The teams are: Devastation, Hyper, LucK, PK, and Check-Six. PK isn’t a full team, so their match might still be played on time, but just a heads-up to any potential viewers. And good luck to all the guys at the Combine. I’m sure it’s a dream come true for a lot of people, so I wish you happy fragging, and hopefully you’ll earn yourself and your team one of the four remaining franchise spots.
There were a couple LD updates today, as well, so if you’re coming over from a direct link on the CAL forums, feel free to check them out here. One was just a small post on the eMazing Gaming Tournament, but the other was a somewhat important update about LANDodger and what’s going on, so I suggest you read that.
On the horizon, there’s plenty of CGS commentary, along with a CGS Mock Draft. GotFrag did their version, but I’m taking it one step farther – I’m going to break down what I think a Counter-Strike: Source draft would look like if they drafted player by player. So, basically, thirty rounds of mayhem, jokes, and crazy LANDodger team picking. It's gonna be a blast, I hope you'll join me.
But for now, it’s time to put on the Predicting Hat. Let’s roll.
snowmen had a close win against Legerity in the opening match, but I think Hyper is a little more talented, as shown by their Combine entry. They also made it far in the CEVO playoffs, and they pretty much breezed through the CAL placement tournament. All in all, I think it should be a close win for Hyper, and April O’niel will have the scoop after the match.
Hyper > snowmen 16-14
eMazing Gaming vs. Check-Six – A quick note: eMazing Gaming merged with 50 Calibre, which is why they’re back in CAL-Invite. Goodbye 50 Cal, we hardly knew ye!
It’s probably not a bad thing, 50 Cal’s performance was pretty underwhelming through two matches. Fifteen rounds? I might have slightly overestimated them during the placement tournament. And now they’ll probably have to get used to the new players, which is never a good thing during a season.
You can get away with roster changes at every other level, even up to CAL-Main, depending on how talented your members are. But a polished, top tier team like Check-Six is going to punish any lapses in communication or chemistry. Coming off preparing for, and playing in, the Combine, they should be ready for anything eMg has to throw at them.
x6 > eMg 19-11
EXTREMITY vs. recKoning – I’ve been touting recKoning the past week based on their recent play, but who knows when they’ll actually play a match. Their “recent play” isn’t so recent anymore. It doesn’t change the fact that zuH is a really good player and they’re a really good team, but still. They’re a little bit of an unknown quantity.
On the other side, we have EXTREMITY. They’ve played both their matches and gotten off to a good 2-0 start. I admit, it was a little surprising – you can tell that by my predictions against them. (No takebacks? Damn!) In my last prediction I said Dust2 might have been Kluwe’s map. He was kind enough to send me an e-mail in which he corrected me by saying, “DAWG EVERYMAP IS MY MAP”.
It’s hard to argue with confidence like that.
EXT > recKoning 16-14
ajnin vs. Visual Gaming – Funny moment from the Luck/VG match: Badapples standing at the site entrance to B tunnels and unloading a clip and some pistol rounds at a guy in the back of the site, then laughing over the mic when somebody else got the kill as he sat crouched in disbelief. It wasn’t the most impressive display of marksmanship, but I say that in the most respectful way possible. Especially because I couldn’t do better, and he seemed to have a good sense of humor about it.
He actually didn’t play that poorly, but it was Fallen and Reffner that impressed me from that match. Fallen had some wicked shots picking mid as a CT, and Reffner had some really dominant rounds. I think Reff was their VG also played really well on Nuke in the placement tournament, and it was one of their two wins during CEVO’s PT.
ajnin has started the season off 0-2, and I don’t like their chances here. n1x1n is capable of dominating a match for ajnin, but I don’t think they’re going to have enough firepower in this one.
VG > ajnin 19-11
PK vs. LucK – First impressions from LucK’s last match: teky is really, really good. I don’t know if he should be filling out his application for 3D yet, but the man can play some Counter-Forces. The rest of the team didn’t have such a good run, losing 9-21 to Visual Gaming, but teky was definitely impressive.
One thing I wasn’t impressed with: LucK’s AWPers. That could hurt them on Nuke. An AWP at ramp isn’t as advantageous as it was in 1.6, but it’s still pretty common to have an AWPer play outside, and I think that’s going to be the key. If their outside players can step up (with an AWP or Colt) then I think they could hang with PK. If not, it’s going to be a long match.
Based on what I’ve seen and PK’s start to the season, I’m leaning towards another win for PK.
PK > LucK 18-12
Cyber Phenom vs. Legerity – CP’s had a rough start to Invite, going 0-2, but I think they’ve been handling it well. LANDodger’s key to winning is never losing. But barring that, the next best thing is to try and learn from every loss. To do that you need a good attitude, and it seems like CP is keeping their heads up and they’re committed to learning from their mistakes.
Unfortunately, one of the problems with adjusting is that you have to do it on every map. Things you learn on Dust2 aren’t always applicable to Nuke, and I think they’re going to have go through the learning process again after facing Legerity.
Legerity > CP 19-11
The Real Untouchables vs. Devastation – Devastation is one of the teams at the CGS Combine, and they’re off to a great 3-0 start. It’s still early, but so far, so good for them. One of their matches was a 10-6 win over United 5 on Nuke, which just happens to be this week’s map. United 5 has been one of the hottest teams in the Source scene, so a win like that is nothing to sneeze at.
TRU isn’t part of the combine, and to make matters worse, they just lost one of their best members. DC played his last match (more on this later) against electrify!. (Ending a sentence with electrify!’s team name is a punctuation nightmare, by the way. Microsoft Word’s grammar check is crying inside, trust me.) DC went out in style with a 19-11 win, and he was a major part of that. I was impressed by ZarkO’s AWP when I watched them play, and a good AWPer is a bonus on Nuke, but I simply can’t imagine them winning with Devastation playing so well.
Dev > TRU 18-12
That’s not a bash on electrify! – as long as they’re having fun, more power to ‘em – I’m just thinking out loud.
They’re still a good team, and to their credit they did split a double-header with that slight handicap. Riot Squad has been plagued with their own problems, and I don’t think they’re going to be in top form when the match rolls around. They’ve had a lot of computer and roster problems, and at this point it wouldn’t surprise me if all of their equipment spontaneously combusted, leaving nothing but ashes and a shattered prediction behind.
electrify! should be able to capitalize on RS’s roster problems when match time comes, and I think they’ll pull out a narrow victory.
e! > RS 17-13
With that done, I want to get back to TRU for a second. DC was also one of the really good guys in eSports. He was very well respected in the community, and I’ve had the pleasure of playing against him a few times. I don’t think he’s ever been on a team other than TRU, and that’s pretty rare. Loyalty and maturity are two qualities hard to find, as anybody building a team (or reading the forums) can attest. So, DC, good luck in your future endeavors, and fare thee well!
As always, good luck to everybody. May the predicted winners win, and the predicted losers prove me wrong.
