What’s up with only five matches from the first date being played? I know we all have busy schedules filled by dates with supermodels, fights with Chuck & Chuck (Liddell and Norris), and tryouts for the Olympics, but aren’t CAL matches more important? Get your priorities straight!
Don’t send me angry e-mails, I’m just kidding. We got a little bit of insight into teams from the first week, but unfortunately I wasn’t able to watch any of the matches because I was traveling and couldn’t have watched the SourceTV even though I wanted to. I’m settled back in at home now, though, so hopefully I’ll get a chance to catch at least a couple of the matches for Wednesday or the three that haven’t been played from Sunday.
But for now I’m still in the dark, or at least the dusk, for a lot of the teams and it could be a rough week for accuracy. On with the preds!
EXTREMITY vs. 50 Calibre – Both of these teams gave me a rude welcome to CAL predictions. I missed the 50 Cal prediction by nine rounds (whoops!), which makes my EXTREMITY prediction look like a close call – which it wasn’t. There’s nowhere to go but up.
(Except for down, but I try to stay positive.)
I was going to go with 50 Cal here, but the more I look at that 8-22 score … that’s a pounding! Maybe it was fluky, but Dust2 could also be a bad map for 50 Cal. EXT, on the other hand, had a pretty convincing win over ajnin, and for whatever reason I’ve seen a lot of screenshots with Kluwe playing well on D2. Could be coincidence, could be a good map for him. In any case, I’m going to give them the nod here in a close match.
EXT > 50 Cal 17-13
recKoning vs. Check-Six – x6 pulled out a win against Visual Gaming in their first match, but I think it cost them Carson “classified” Holt – he got suspended for using the CEVO GUI. Not a major suspension in terms of gossip, but he’s a very good player, and I don’t think they’ll be able to take down reckoning without him. recKoning hasn’t played yet, but they were on fire in the CEVO placement tournament.
The X-factor is Eric “brawwr” Neer. If he gets hot, we know he can dominate a match. He showed that a few times at the Buy.com LAN. I’m not sure how good their sixth man is, but if brawwr can get in the flow they just need him to be adequate. I still can’t predict them to win, but it’ll be interesting to see if Neer can put them on his back one more time.
recK > x6 18-12
Featured Match
LucK vs. Visual Gaming – Hook me up with the SourceTV IP. That’s all I ask. I don’t even care if the prediction is wrong; I just want to watch the match.
Of course, that’s a lie. I want the prediction to be right, and I think Visual Gaming is going to win. But LucK has a good roster and they did well in the placement tournament. VG just came off that tough loss to x6, and I think we might see that matchup again somewhere in the playoffs. It won’t be easy for Visual Gaming, but I have to go with Messiah, Badapples, and Co. for the victory.
VG > LucK 17-13
The Real Untouchables vs. Hyper – TRU hasn’t played their first match. Hyper hasn’t played their first match. When will this one be played? The only thing I’m sure of is that it won’t be on Caturday.
Something totally unrelated to the match: I was perusing Hyper’s roster, and April O’niel can’t be that person’s real name, right? Nobody with the last name of O’niel would name their child after the reporter in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. And even if they did there’s no way that person would end up on the same CAL-I Source roster as a player named “Shredder”. I hope it’s a conspiracy, because if it’s coincidence, clearly the planets have aligned improperly and the end is nigh. Just tell me it’s a conspiracy, please, before I spend thousands of dollars on non-perishable food and a fallout bunker.
TRU doesn’t have nearly as much name synergy, and I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up in the match, either. Hyper should be in contention for the title at the end of the year, and I don’t think TRU is on that level yet. As Michelangel would say: bummer, dude.
Hyper > TRU 19-11
electrify! vs. Cyber Phenom – CP just barely lost to Devastation, and that was a much closer match than I thought it would be. I know Dev used a manger, but I'll have more on that in a moment. For now, I was still impressed with the way CP played, I was expecting a wider margin.
electrify should be pretty close to Devastation in terms of skill (when they're not using their manager). electrify hasn't played their first match yet, but they did beat NoPression on Dust2 in the CEVO placement tournament, and NP was a talented team from Season 3 of CEVO. I think e! will be able to get a victory here, despite CP's strong showing against Devastation.
electrify! > CP 17-13
snowmen (Fever) vs. Riot Squad – Just so we’re all on the same page, Fever decided to join the snowmen organization. I haven’t confirmed this, but I think they also got a new manager: Jack “Old Man Winter” Frost. I heard he's a real blowhard and he's pretty cold to all the players, but maybe my information is wrong. (Corniest joke ever?)
Even though it’s really early in the season, this could be a big match for Riot Squad. If they win, we have to consider them one of the top teams. If they lose, it makes those losses to eMg in the pre-placement tournament stand out a bit more. The whole situation leading to their entry into the tournament was weird, and it’s hard to get a read on them after they lost to eMg and then eMg was subsequently knocked out. My gut says they just had a bad day, and the RS that ripped through the Lower Bracket is more indicative of their skill level. If they can get a stable five they should be able to compete for the title, but for now they’ll have to settle for handing the defending champs their first loss.
RS > Snowmen 16-14
Devastation vs. Legerity – Devastation beat Cyber Phenom even when they used a manager, but it was by the smallest margin, and CP was leading late in the match. It seems like they just couldn’t close the deal.
As a general note about managers playing, I know they’re not supposed to be as good as the “real” players, but they’re not total noobs, either. Are they as good as the regular starters? I’d hope not, or else they should be starting. But it’s not exactly the same as Lou Piniella striking you out or Jim Leyland hitting an inside-the-park homerun (feel free to insert your favorite old, slow, graying manager in place of Piniella or Leyland). It’s not as much of a big deal as people make it out to be.
Funshine did a good job of picking mid in the second half, which seemed to throw off CP a little bit, but I don’t think that’s going to be enough this time. They’ll need their starters if they want to beat Legerity. I don’t want to split the prediction (one pred with starters, one pred with a manager), so I’m just going to assume they’ll have their starters for this match. If not, I think Legerity will win, but for now …
Devastation > Legerity 17-13
ajnin vs. PK – This is the fifth time I’m predicting a PK match. I’ve underestimated them in every other prediction – most notably I predicted them to lose two close matches which they ended up winning 16-4 (CAL placement tournament) and 22-8 (last week).
So that makes me want to predict PK to win – it’s clear they’re a better team than I’ve thought. Then again, these teams met in the Pacific Finals last season, and ajnin won that matchup fairly easily. I should choose ajnin. But wait, I used that logic as part of a prediction last week, and ajnin lost 19-11 to EXTREMITY.
Sigh. (Or sai, if you’re still stuck on the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.) Whenever I’m in a tough situation and I don’t know what to do, I look to world leaders for words of encouragement and wisdom. So tonight I go to the wisest of leaders, President Bush, for this nugget: “Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me – you can’t get fooled again.”
Amen.
PK > ajnin 18-12
And just like last week, good luck to all the teams. May the predicted winners win, and the predicted losers prove me wrong!
