Welcome to the first installment of my weekly CEVO predictions! For future reference, I’ll do predictions every Friday, two rounds at a time. Since this is the first installment, there isn’t a recap for last week, but in future weeks you can see which ones I mangled and flame me accordingly.
I’ll also be adding a “week in review” section next week. It’ll be a general recap of eSports news: player movement, league news, team news, stuff like that. But for now, on with the preds!
CEVO Round 3 (de_losttemple_pro)
Match of the Week
coL vs. 3D – The two top 1.6 teams facing off. Rambo facing his old team for the first time. Ksharp’s first match against coL after coming out of retirement. I don’t care if you make love to 1.6 and Source makes you vomit -- drink some Pepto and grab a chair, you want to see this match. I’d buy tickets to this game if I could. I only wish that this match happened in Round 13 instead of Round 3, so we could get rid of the “3D lost because of the new roster” or “coL lost because of zet’s ping” arguments and see both teams in full force.
That being said, coL is coming off a couple big wins, and zet’s Swedish ping isn’t as much of an issue on the Source engine; a 150 ping in 1.6 makes you the official team bait, but in Source you actually have a chance to help. Both teams have some new members, but right now I think coL is a little farther ahead at working them in.
coL > 3D 18-12
Clan eX vs. Forbidden – Forbidden is actively looking for a fifth to complete their roster. LANDodger pet peeve: when a player leaves a team, there’s no system to work in a replacement. You can’t bring them up from the minor leagues, since no top clans have an organized farm team, and you can’t use a bench player, since bench players would rather be starters somewhere else. You would never, EVER see a professional sports team forfeit because they couldn’t field a team. I think they’ll play, but Forbidden’s roster problems will cost them (at least) this match.
eX > Forbidden 19-11.
EG vs. JMC – Why isn’t anybody talking about how good EG is? They have everything: dominating awper (shaGuar), one of the best tactical minds (tr1p) in the game and great riflers (blackpanther, stevenson, grt). They also have plenty of experience winning huge games -- tr1p and shaG have both won major international LANs. What’s not to like? Even though JMC is a great team that just picked up another star in aZn, I’m giving this game to our northern brethren.
EG > JMC 17-13
x6 vs. juked – I don’t see any way juked could win this match. x6 has more talent, more experience and they’re gonna get more rounds. Since I don’t have much to say about the match, can anybody tell me why CEVO has eighteen teams in Source-Pro, and only ten in 1.6-Pro? This is a good idea? Really? Source has fewer players, a smaller fan base and fewer top-level teams. If you’re a CEVO fan, get used to some lopsided matches -- there are teams in the league that just don’t have the stability and the scrim schedule to hang with the top teams.
x6 > Juked 22-8
distinct5 vs. united 5 – distinct5 sits at 2-0 with a convincing win over Forbidden and a close win against Devastation. u5 forfeited their last match and only put up ten rounds on EFG in Round 1. With u5 just losing aZn and struggling a bit to adjust to Source, d5 should have an advantage.
But the real question for this match: could either of them beat Johnny 5? I say no. Johnny has a cutting laser, he’s solid metal, and he can make raisins dance. How can you beat that? Even if you managed to hurt him, he’d just take over your computer with that little remote control and make you grenade yourself.
distinct5 > united 5 18-12
EFG vs. rSports – rSports is not getting it done. All those Source haters say that a 1.6 CAL-IM team could be CAL-I in Source, yet this CAL-I 1.6 team barely squeaked out a win against juked and lost 21-9 to Clan eX. EFG is the one of my elite teams for this season, I can’t see them losing here.
EFG > rS 22-8
Frantic vs. Hyper! - Hyper! has two wins and currently sits at #1 in CEVO-P due to their CPI. They won both CAL-I and CEVO-P last season. And they just picked up Nightfall (which, character issues aside, doesn’t seem to be a problem in-game). Hyper! should take this match against a weaker Frantic team.
Hyper! > Frantic 20-10
Devastation vs. Eximius Sports – These two teams are ranked ninth and eighth respectively (by CEVO CPI), but I don’t think Devastation is the underdog here. They finished third last season in CEVO-P and ahead of Eximius at DC-LAN (third and fourth). They aren’t the biggest names, but with both teams at similar skill levels, this match should be well-played and exciting. Eximius is a good team, but I think they’re going to lose a close one to Dev.
Dev > EXSports 17-13
1shot vs. verGe – Let’s see: a 28-2 loss to coL, roster turmoil, and not only is your opponent is one of the best Source teams, they also just picked up a couple of Pandemic guys. It’s not gonna get any better for 1shot this match.
verGe > 1shot 21-9
CEVO ROUND 4 (de_losttemple_pro)
Match of The Week
verGe vs. EG– This is the match I want to see, because it’s a good way to gauge how good 1.6 teams will make the transition. EG has great 1.6 talent and about a month of Source practice. verGe has a few old 1.6 players too (Griff, Drew and Mason), but they also have two solid Source players in STRuK and paradox. And unlike an rSports/Frantic matchup, these teams were among the best in their respective games.
If Source is easy and Source players are just 1.6 rejects, then EG should take this match pretty easily. If Source players are just as talented as 1.6 players and 1.6 skills translate well to the Source engine, then the match should be a close one.
verGe > EG 17-13
Hyper! vs. united5 – I love u5 as an organization, but I’m definitely not in love with their Source team. u5’s roster problems are too much of a handicap against one of the top Source teams, and Hyper! has won their first two matches without a problem.
Hyper! > u5 20-10
coL vs. distinct5 - distinct5 is a middle-tier team, but coL is hot and should take the match. After coL's match with 3D, there’s a chance this could be a letdown game ... then again, it's hard to relax too much with Jason Lake over your shoulder. d5 will put up more of a fight than coL’s first two opponents, but I see another win for Rambo and crew.
coL > d5 18-12
Eximius vs. EFGaming – Not much to say here. No 1.6 vs. Source team grudge match, no player rivalries to speak of … just a top team that’s going to put a hurting on Eximius.
EFG > EXSports 19-11
3D vs. JMC – Another great matchup between two 1.6 teams. JMC‘s good, but de_losttemple_pro is an unfamiliar map for most teams, and I think 3D will have more time to practice it because they’re not focusing on 1.6 as well. On a standard map I’d give JMC the nod, but I think 3D’s extra focus on Source will mean a close win.
3D > JMC 16-14
1shot vs. Devastation – Devastation will have a much easier time with 1shot than they did with Round 3 against Eximius. It’s going to be a rough season for 1shot this year, their losing streak will continue in Round 4.
Dev > 1shot 20-10
Rsports vs. Frantic – Neither team really impresses me, and I don’t think either are in contention for a title this season. This is one of the reasons why we need farm teams. There’s no good way for a team like Frantic or Rsports to rebuild, they just have to hope something clicks with their current lineup or somebody suddenly becomes available and chooses to join them over a team like 3D, or JMC, or Pandemic. There are no prospects here, so you’d only watch this match if you’re already a fan of the teams. I’d rather see young talent struggling to get better than old talent struggling to stay relevant.
rSports > Frantic 17-13
x6 vs. clan eX – Great matchup here. x6 has a genuine all-star in Haqshot, and I think he’s going to be the difference for x6. This match will help us get a handle on how these teams will fare the rest of the season. I ranked them closely in my CEVO team recaps, and I expect this match to be close as well.
x6 > Clan eX 17-13
Forbidden vs. juked – This is a classic matchup between an inactive, talented team and a less talented, but more active team. I think that juked is going to pull this one out in an upset, Forbidden shouldn’t be comfortable with their new starter by the time this match happens.
Juked > Forbidden 16-14
As always, any feedback is much appreciated. I also ranked all the CEVO teams on Friday, so take a look if you missed that. Next week we’ll continue with eSports issues, starting with this question: why are we still playing the same five basic maps after five years? Have a good weekend!
